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By Rev. Robert Vinciguerra (about the author) Page 2 of 2 page(s)
At the convention, Clinton only needs to convince the delegations of one or two of the states where she won by a large margin, i.e. California, Pennsylvania, New York, Florida, to cast all of their delegates for her. Expect this to be her strategy. Under such a scenario, it would be difficult for either Obama or McCain to argue against the legitimacy of her win. Obama would have to concede the point that he did lose those states, and that the will of their residents was that his opponent should be the nominee. McCain would be in an even worse position to make any criticism, as the GOP nominating process is winner-take-all in the first place. Under those rules, Clinton would’ve sewn up the nomination all the way back on February 5th. It’s a Long Shot
For it to work, Clinton needs to be in a better position than she faces currently, and three things need to happen. First, she needs to get all or at least half of the delegations for Florida and Michigan seated. Second, she needs an event to give her traction. Being ahead in the so-called popular vote probably won’t do it for her, but an upset in South Dakota might. Third, she needs the superdelegates to remain on the sidelines until the convention.
Under those circumstances, it’s extremely unlikely that Hillary Clinton will survive until the convention in August. But, if she makes it, do not be surprised to see a state delegation from a major state that she won (New York, California, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida) cast all of their votes for her, pledged or not.
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