"First, the United States can leave a residual
force of about 20,000 troops in Iraq to guarantee Sunni and Kurdish interests,
to protect Turkish interests, etc. The price of pursuing this option is that it
leaves Iran facing a nightmare
scenario: e.g., the potential re-emergence
of a powerful Iraq and the recurrence down the road of the age-old conflict
between Persia and Mesopotamia -- with the added possibility of a division of
American troops supporting their foes. This would pose an existential threat to
Iran, forcing Tehran to use covert means to destabilize Iraq that would take
advantage of a minimal, widely dispersed U.S. force vulnerable to local
violence.
"Second, the United States could withdraw and
allow Iraq to become a cockpit for competition among neighboring countries:
Turkey, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Syria -- and ultimately major regional powers like
Russia. While chaos in Iraq is not inherently inconsistent with U.S. interests,
it is highly unpredictable, meaning the United States could be pulled back into
Iraq at the least opportune time and place."
Friedman then concludes, "With Iran out of the
picture, the residual U.S. force could be smaller and would be more secure.
Eliminate the Iran problem completely, and the picture for all players becomes
safer and more secure. But eliminating Iran from the equation is not an option --
Iran most assuredly gets a vote in this endgame."
For those interested in the issues raised in
this article, readers should feel compelled to read Friedman's entire article,
and it is provided here: http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20090817_iraq_endgame
There are two reasons for this
strong suggestion. One, it is totally unfair to Friedman to judge his article
based upon my selection of quotes and my musings. I may have inadvertently
misled the reader of the writer's intent. Two, the reader should learn more about a very complicated issue. I wish to congratulate George
Friedman on a very astute analysis, and I have learned more from him in this one
article than in months and months of posturing by Washington officials,
pundits,and the pathetic, uninspiring MSN.
For those who think the endgame is approaching
soon for the Iraq Crisis, think again.
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