Robotic technology has been maturing for over two decades and has reached a level similar to the advancement of mainframe computers in late '70s. The main problems of robotic technology are its relatively high cost and difficulty of programming. The leading robotic technology countries are Japan, Germany, Sweden, France, and the U.S. The top companies that manufacture robots are: Fanuc (Japan), Yaskawa (Japan), ABB (Sweden), Kuka (Germany), followed by a handful of smaller players in Japan and other countries. The U.S. has only one robotic company that is a relatively small player in a $2 billion dollar industry. The industrial robot market is divided by type of robot, with the most advance robots using 6-axis that has the capability to mimic the arm of a human. The technological advances of the robot today allow robots to perform mechanical motions as fast as humans with much greater accuracy and repeatability. The average robot today has more than 10 years of reliable performance and costs $30,000. The applications of the robots encompass many processes including assembly, welding, packaging, material handling, and micro-manipulations. Robotic systems may also feature vision guidance: a highly developed ability of the robot to recognize objects and move in accordance with object orientation. Manufacturers buy robotic machinery to improve the quality of the products and replace unskilled labor. Since the U.S. already replaces its unskilled labor by outsourcing it to foreign countries, it will be possible to bring manufacturing back to the domestic market and make it competitive by employing today's robotic equipment. The investments for this type of advance involves a payback periods of at least five years. Robotic tools will make every worker more competitive. For example, one operator having a tool such as a robot in the U.S. can compete with five to seven workers that use manual labor. The cost of an investment in robotic machinery combines robotic hardware, engineering, tooling fabrication and programming. The total cost of implementation of a typical system is three times higher than the cost of the robot itself. The two largest components of cost are robotic control hardware and programming.
The U.S. needs to develop the next generation of robots that will drive these two costs to less than half of its current value. The cost of developing these types of technologies are quite low and requires a relatively low investment less than several billion dollars.
It will take ten to twenty billion dollars to get to the next revolution in robotic technology. A revolution that will come from the invention of new processors for the robot and changing the way it is programmed. In addition, another advancement will be to speed up the assembly of the robots that will lead to fully automatic lines of robot manufacturing. These steps will further reduce the cost of the robot and will make it much easier to use. Only advancement in robotic manufacturing can bring manufacturing back to the U.S.
If we do not choose to follow this path and invest resources in robotics, the U.S. will eventually lose the rest of its manufacturing capability. This includes losing the ability to manufacture for industries in which we are currently making large investments of capital. Industries such as renewable technology, military, construction, aeronautics, automobiles, computers, communication devices, pharmaceuticals and food will all be impacted.
Whether the government will allocate resources to robotic technology or American entrepreneurs will find the way to invest in this underappreciated tool, the future will show which countries will benefit and develop a competitive advantage.
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Mr. Gurevich has spent eleven years as R&D and Engineering Manager for the Cooper Industries Co.
His educational background is MBA from Webster University, BS in Electrical Engineering and Industrial Automation fields from Washington University, (
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