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Promoted to Headline (H3) on 9/24/08:     Permalink
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Days from Economic Meltdown: "Dr. Doom" says up to 33% of regional banks could fail

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The banks created a shell game, hiding unrecoverable loans in subsidiaries, and using Wall Street’s version of “aggressive accounting” to pretend that  liabilities were sellable assets.  In the process, they packaged risky or uncollectible loans and bundled and sold those toxic loans as “mortgage backed securities.”

Banks and financial institutions around the world bought these venomous “investments”, resulting in a  poisoning of the world’s financial markets, aided and abetted by a coven of asleep at the wheel  federal banking regulators, under whose eyes the whole poison pill was gracefully injected into the nation’s financial markets.

Bank and financial institution failures are frightening, because the financial institutions are the life’s blood of the economy.

Whether under attack by hedge funds or fleeing retail depositors, no depository, solvent or not, can survive a sustained bank run, whether by retail depositors or institutional clients.  This contraction in credit by commercial banks is affecting the entire global economy and threatens to turn the US recession into a prolonged period of no growth or outright reduction of economic activity.  (Christopher Whalen, The Institutional Risk Analyst, 9-16-08)

The economy runs on liquidity, access to capital,  and investment.  An economist writing in the Cato Journal in 1995,  George S. Kaufman, noted:

…the bulk of the evidence suggests that the greatest danger of systemic risk comes not from the damage that may be imposed on the economy from a series of bank failures, but from the damage that is imposed on the economy from the adverse effects of poor public policies adopted to prevent systemic risk.  As a result  it can be argued that the last two decades reflects primarily regulatory or government failures, rather than market failures.  (Kaufman, “Bank Failures, systemic risk, and Bank Regulation”)

Kaufman believes that bank failures are not costless, and that shareholders, creditors, and the deposit insurers lose when banks fail.  However, he argues that while small loan customers may be inconvenienced by changes in the failed banks loan personnel, loan standards and other post-failure/takeover changes in policy and  procedure,

“it is  no different from the losses and disruptions in firm-customer relationships that accompany failure of almost any business entity of comparable (sic) in firm-customer relationships that accompany failure of almost any business entity of comparable size in the community.” (Ibid)

The problem with this line of thought is that banks are not “just another business entity.”  Banks, both symbolically and literally are the life’s blood of the nation’s economy.  Bank failures generate a lack of confidence in the viability of the economy, even when the failure is “only one bank.”

The problem is, banks fail these days in a climate of rapid information transfer, cross continental, bank-to-bank loans and investment vehicle purchase.  If no man is an island, that most certainly is true of banks and financial institutions.  Banks do not operate in an isolated atmosphere and even the most egregious failures of individual banks and financial institutions have cross-market, national and even international consequences because banks these days are more than “single entities”. 

Today’s massive tidal wave of systemic failure reaches not only across the country, but around the world.  Massive  failures in  the strength and viability of its economic conduits and exchange medium generate a loss of confidence in the system, which  generates another source of  poison. An economy is only as strong as the faith in its exchange medium.

This is what has happened in the US banking system, where deregulation and lack of oversight has allowed banks to create a veritable haven of fraud, fiscal piracy, collusion, delusion, confusion and systemic failure.  Swapping of worthless, toxic, boiler room brewed “mortgage backed securities” and “securitized mortgages” between banks and their subsidiaries has resulted in the collapse or merger of some of the nation’s oldest and here-to-fore renown investment brokerage houses.

And now, the taxpayer is expected to fork out a blank check for these and future failures, because these institutions are “too big to fail.”   The Administration knows what is going to happen in 2009, when more consequences of unregulated madness hits the nation’s bloodstream.

Some say the calamity is so poisonous, so toxic that it will restructure the nation’s economy and banking system entirely.  Analysts believe that as many as a thousand banks may fail before this crisis ends.

As author and investment banker Christopher Whalen noted recently:

The contagion in the financial markets continues to spread. While we should applaud the actions taken so far by the US Treasury and the Fed to stabilize the financial system more action is needed. This crisis began with concerns about liquidity, but is becoming a solvency crisis. (“FDIC Won't Run Out of Money, But WaMu May be Toast”)

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Media is in full disinfo mode by erik mouse on Wednesday, Sep 24, 2008 at 11:27:52 AM
Well, here is something that might lighten this subject up.. by steve scheetz on Wednesday, Sep 24, 2008 at 12:09:40 PM
A brilliant parallel. by John Sanchez Jr. on Wednesday, Sep 24, 2008 at 12:40:14 PM
Re: Scam by Thaddeus Kaczor Jr on Wednesday, Sep 24, 2008 at 1:24:50 PM
Nigerian Scam goes American by M. Davis on Wednesday, Sep 24, 2008 at 12:44:40 PM
really by jeff prager on Wednesday, Sep 24, 2008 at 1:46:38 PM
Great Article by Lord Stirling on Wednesday, Sep 24, 2008 at 1:49:19 PM
Are the tranking the water? by M. Davis on Wednesday, Sep 24, 2008 at 2:14:19 PM
erik mouse stated: by richard on Wednesday, Sep 24, 2008 at 7:47:01 PM