This is the latest form of dramatized saber rattling that sounds like some alarmist reality TV show, videogame or a Fox News wet dream. These scenarios always make it seem as if a war will be swift and surgical, with no retaliation, and no consequences.
It brings you back to the Neocon fantasies about the "cakewalk" they expected in Iraq, the war that never went as planned, and took a decade to lose before the US was, in effect, tossed out. (Today there are reports that Iraq is actually defying the financial and oil sanctions imposed on its neighbor.)
This doesn't stop those who seem to be looking forward to the fight they believe is coming. Here's another site: Polcymic.com:
"In recent weeks, all indications have pointed to an increasingly imminent Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear facilities. Whether it be the account of the reporter who was granted access to observe the Israeli Air Force prepare for a strike and subsequently recounted his belief that Israel is now "closer than ever" to mounting an attack, or the former prime minister warning , "If I were Iranian, I would be very fearful of the next 12 weeks," Israel has made no attempt to hide the contents of its short-term agenda."
At least this site is not salivating, also noting: "The fatal flaw of an Israeli assault is that some of the facilities lie underground and out of reach. Worse, many, including Defense Secretary Leon Panetta, fear the "unintended consequences" an Israeli strike could sow. The American Security Project, among others, points out that an attack -- which would only amount to a flesh wound -- would unite Iranians around hardliners and would not only guarantee further nuclear production, but also legitimize it even in the opinion of Iranians previously opposed to the nuclear program."
Former CIA Station Chief Robert Greniew has another take. He believes that Iran and the US are calling Israel's bluff. He says so on AlJazeera:
"Israeli President Shimon Peres, reflecting the concerns of many, said a few days ago that "It is clear to us now that we cannot do this alone. It is clear to us we need to work together with America." That view, we are told, is widely shared within the Israeli defense and intelligence establishments.
The military people charged with conducting a preemptive strike on Iran are the most likely to resist starting something that they know they cannot finish on their own. They are the ones who realize, despite the uninformed and wishful thinking of some civilians, that long-range air attacks on Iran are unlikely to have more than a marginal impact on its nuclear program unless they are sustained. Israel cannot sustain these attacks. Only the US can.
"But the Americans have made clear that they want to wait. It is at least part of Netanyahu's calculation that credible threats of an Israeli strike during the US presidential campaign season and the Bema administration's desperate desire to avoid it will motivate the US to trade Israeli assurances of near-term forbearance for a more credible and irrevocable US commitment to employ military force if and when evidences of the failure of economic sanctions and the imminence of a hardened Iranian nuclear weapons capability converge."
That is more than understandable, because the only really effective military action to be taken would have to be taken by the US, and the main point of an Israeli attack would be to precipitate it. Though it may not have been their conscious intent, the Americans have in effect called Netanyahu's bluff. If he doesn't realize it, he soon will."
Let's not forget that American airpower, while deadly, is not always effective. Remember "shock and awe" over Baghdad or the bombings of Hanoi? They were devastating, but did not achieve their militarily goals.
All of this is war-gaming has to be predicated on the assumption that rationality will prevail on all sides. But as the American political campaign heats up, inflated rhetoric can be expected.
Some currently unanticipated high-profile incident or covert provocation could change the equation creating some 911-type pretext for conflict.
We live in a dangerous world.
News Dissector Danny Schechter blogs at Newsdissector.net. His latest books are Occupy: Dissecting Occupy Wall Street and Blogothon. He hosts a show on ProgressiveRadioNetwork (PRN.fm)
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