America's Perfect Storm: Transition to Survival After Peak Oil Hits

After “Peak Oil” hits in places like Saudi Arabia, Iraq and other countries exporting oil in 2008, they will export only 10 percent in the coming years.  That will leave America, currently importing 60 percent of the 20 million barrels of oil it burns daily, out of luck.  For more information:  www.oildrum.com

Brownlee said, “In our plausible future, we can expect $200 a barrel by 2010 and on toward $300 a barrel.  Any alternatives cannot come on line fast enough or equal the power of oil.”

To show how much energy oil provides the U.S. annually, Brownlee provided a graph of one cubic mile of oil.  That’s how much the USA burns annually.  That equals the same amount of energy provided  by 52 nuclear power plants generating energy being built every year for 50 years or 104 operating coal-fired electrical plants built every year for 50 years or 32,000 wind turbines built every year for 50 years and in continuous operation or 91,250,000 solar panels built every year for 50 years.

In other words, oil produces dramatically incredible amounts of energy that we cannot and will not be able to duplicate in the coming years. Thus, when the oil runs out, our civilization, as they say, faces Hobson’s Choice: if we turn left, we walk over a cliff; if we turn right, we walk into quicksand.

Why hasn’t the media reported what we face?  Brownlee said, “The media hasn’t caught up to science.”

Brownlee mentioned James Hanson of the Goddard Space Institute who said, “We have 10 years to change the trajectory of green house gases, yet we have done nothing.”

Brownlee addressed the third crisis, “We face an economic collapse with the U.S. dollar based on fossil fuel.  Those bailouts show us on the brink of unraveling.  Colin Campbell said, “The second half of the age of oil will be marked by the decline of oil and all that depend on it—world depression. It will challenge the continuation of civilized life.””

While Brownlee’s soft-spoken approach landed like a brick on a Monet painting, he talked about humanity passing through its irresponsible teens and now faces adulthood.  We must be realistic as he pointed out over 900 transition communities worldwide taking action toward sustainable futures.  Anyone can purchase “The Transition Handbook: From Oil Dependency to Local Resilience” by Rob Hopkins, founder of the Transition Movement.

Brownlee proposed a 12 point program for local action.  You may find it at the web sites provided.  Brownlee quoted Gary Snyder, “All things are possible when enough human beings realize everything is at stake.”

“This is the fastest growing most significant movement in the 21st century,” Brownlee said.  “We must be creative, engaged and work at the local level.  We may become more socially connected, produce of goods and food closer to home, and enjoy newly reconnected local networks.”

At the end of his presentation, Brownlee talked about reconnecting with our planet home.  He spoke of changing from our individual obesity, inequality of incomes and status, high speed rat race, and fouling our planet—toward a simpler and more balanced humanity on Earth.

Brownlee said in closing, “We don’t know if it will work.  If we wait for the government, it will be too late; we cannot wait for someone else to do the work for us.  There will be plenty to do!  We will need 50 million farmers to grow our food!”

“The uncertainty of our times is no reason to be certain about hopelessness.”  Vandana Shiva

For information on meetings:   www.transitioncolorado.ning.com ; www.transitiontowns.org

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To take action: www.numbersusa.com ; www.thesocialcontract.com  ; www.fairus.org ; www.vdare.com ;www.patriotunion.org ; www.alipac.us ; www.firecoalition.com ; www.cairco.org ; www.limitstogrowth.com ;

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