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-- at this stage of the economic cycle (two and a half years after Fed easing began), employment typically expands at least 150,000 per month; instead, it's still contracting, the level is 8.4 million lower than before the recession began, and the economy is 12 million jobs shy of full employment, a gap that will take years of sustainable growth to close;
-- commercial real estate values down 30% in the past year and falling;
-- the average American worker $100,000 poorer (including loss of home equity), even with the stock market rally;
-- bank credit contracting at an unprecedented 15% annual rate this year "as lenders sit on a record $1.3 trillion in cash;"
-- collapsed commercial and industrial loans;
-- Falling Gross Domestic Income, approaching an annualized minus 4% compared to the 1982 recessionary low of plus 4% and 2001 low of plus 2%; "the discrepancy between the income and spending accounts has never been so wide as" today; and
-- unit labor costs down 4.7% in the past year, meaning workers earn and spend less.
Conclusion - "the era of 'green shoots' is officially dead." Now you see them, now you don't because they never were there in the first place.
A recent issue of the Economist magazine asked "Why Is the recovery jobless? Maybe because it isn't a recovery," with no lack of supportive evidence. "In February, for the twenty-fifth time in 26 months, the American economy shed jobs," and beneath the surface it's much worse.
The official 9.7% headline number (so-called U-3; U-6, including discouraged workers, is 16.8%) obscures the true figure, what economist John Williams calculates at 21.6%, minus the manipulated deception. The Economist concludes that "the American economy simply hasn't been doing as well as the output figures have suggested."
Take GDP, for example. Rosenberg explains that Q 4's 5.9% growth "came in two non-recurring items - inventories and capital spending (the former a temporary alignment of stocks with sales and the latter a late-year rush to take advantage of some tax goodies)."
Those aside, the economy slowed to less than 1%, may be revised lower, and the two headline figures won't likely repeat, given a wealth of depressing data, including retail sales. The headline February 0.3% (0.8% minus autos) rise beat an expected 0.2% decline.
However, the raw data paints a different picture - minus 1.6% month-over-month in February (a month when rises usually occur) or four times as bad as the norm, and worst February in 12 years.
This (says Rosenberg) in spite of "the greatest stimulus experience in seven decades, and retail sales are still down 5% from the pre-recession peak and on a per capita basis 8%." They're lower than in January 2006 despite a 4.3% larger population, and adjusted for inflation, they're down to 1996 levels on a per capita basis.
Some recovery, and little wonder the latest Conference Board consumer confidence survey showed only 6.2% of the public thinks business conditions are good - a record low.
As a result, several presidential tracking polls have Obama at from 44 - 49%, down from 68% in January 2009, and for Congress it's worse at around about 30%. If conditions worsen, expect further erosion, and if an economic storm erupts, they may crash.
