And that assumes they can convince Republican senators like Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins to filibuster health care reform. If they can't, they need to offset any losses with additional Democrats.
Can they do it? Sure, it's possible. But it isn't as simple as it looks from news reports that treat any public option skeptic as someone who will filibuster. That's why Sen. Tom Harkin says there will be 60 votes for cloture even though some of the most conservative Democrats and least conservative Republicans have indicated opposition to a public plan -- he knows it's harder to filibuster something than to vote against it.
Now, is Harkin right that there will be 60 votes, or is Baucus right when he says there won't be? We don't know -- nobody is publicly saying how they'll vote on cloture.
Which brings us to transparency ... and to accountability.
The way the news media have been covering the health care debate -- assuming opposition is synonymous with an intent to filibuster and, as a result, not actually asking anyone if they'll filibuster -- creates the perception that Baucus is right, that such legislation could never get cloture. And so health care reform containing a public option may never come to a vote, not even a cloture vote.
If that happens, a few senators will have killed the very popular public option not by announcing their intent to filibuster it, but by creating the perception that it would be successfully filibustered -- perhaps by others. (Remember: Baucus says he voted against the public option in committee not because he opposes it, but because unnamed other senators will filibuster it.) The public will never know who really killed it. They'll never know who would have filibustered it -- or even who was willing to say they would filibuster it.
Strong health care reform that enjoys widespread public support will, in that scenario, essentially die in a smoke-filled back room. There will be no transparency and no accountability. That, it seems obvious, is just the way some politicians want it. After all, if they were willing to face the consequences for killing reform, they could just come forward right now and announce their intent to filibuster. The fact that they haven't done so is de facto proof that they either aren't willing to filibuster or that they want to avoid accountability if at all possible. That's an understandable desire on their end -- but there's no reason journalists or the public should defer to it.
The good news is that fate is easily avoided. All it requires is one news organization to behave as though it believes what the media have been reporting all year -- that cloture is the vote that matters. If they do, they'll start working to get senators on the record about whether they'll filibuster. Their reporting going forward will focus not on whether senators say they agree or disagree with the public option, but on whether they will filibuster reform that includes such an option. That will go a long way toward showing who is right -- Max Baucus or Tom Harkin.
It may not make a difference in whether health care reform passes, or what it looks like if it does -- but that isn't the media's job. The media's job is to show the public what is happening. To hold politicians accountable rather than allowing them to kill popular reforms silently and secretly, without casting a vote or even making their intentions clear. To demand straight answers rather than making assumptions about how senators will vote.
That's something large news organizations -- like, say, The Washington Post or NBC News -- are perfectly situated to do. They have the resources to ask 100 senators how they'll vote on cloture -- and to regularly report the answers (including which senators won't answer) to large audiences. And to focus public attention on what they've said matters all along -- how many senators will filibuster, and which ones.
That's something the Post or NBC or CNN can do better than any blogger, any independent or ideological media outlet. They have the resources, the reach, and the stature. It's a chance for them to prove they really do still have something to offer that can't be easily replaced by smaller, cheaper, more nimble competitors.
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