Then there are the seemingly endless examples of electronic voting machines improperly recording and counting votes plus security problems. There are no real methods to check electronic voting. Even if you could and proved fraud, state recount laws are very difficult to invoke and highly restrictive. In Virginia and Florida, for example, it is illegal to recount the paper forms for optical scan voting machines as part of a recount.
What a total mess and a complete mockery of the democracy that we deserve. But when you add up all of these strategies, based on past performance, they work at the margins - maybe a 3-4% shift in votes to the Republican candidate.
"Net New" Democratic Primary Voters
There will still be election fraud at multiple levels in 2008. It's a national tradition dating back to the Whig Party chasing off immigrant voters in the early 1800's. But in terms of outcome, this election can be an accurate reflection of the wishes of a majority of voters even with the typical switched votes and varieties of voter suppression.
The solution to election fraud and the best policy for election protection is voter increases accounted for by those "net new" Democratic primary voters. The voter turnout in the presidential primaries was extraordinary in many states. In some cases, like Virginia, the total voters in 2008 more than doubled the total from 2004.
The surge of voter turnout in the primaries began in the mid Atlantic states and carried on through the southeastern seaboard. In addition, swing states showed the same extraordinary trend, a trend that helped Obama win with "net new" primary voters.
At the same time, turnout in the contested Republican primaries was paltry by comparison. Clearly, Republicans were not motivated.
For example, look at the mid and southeastern Atlantic results, the states that gave Sen. Obama a clean sweep.
There were 4.9 million voters in the 2008 Democratic Primary and 2.6 million in 2004. That's 2.3 million "net new" Democratic primary voters for 2008. + North Carolina had state caucuses in 2004. The 2004 Democratic primary figure is an estimate. (Source CNN 2004, 2008)
In the mid and southeastern Atlantic states, there were nearly 4.9 million Democrats voting in primaries compared to 2.2 million Republicans. With the exception of Delaware and Maryland, the states above are traditionally Republican states. Democrats dwarfed Republicans in 2008 primary turnout. In addition, Democratic turnout nearly doubled from 2004 to 2008. Democratic primary votes increased from 2.6 million in 2004 to 4.9 million in 2008 (using the estimate for N.C. 2004), an increase of 2.3 million "net new" Democratic primary voters.
Let's look at the critical swing states. A similar, somewhat less dramatic pattern emerges. The one exception to the pattern is Florida. The Republican state legislature moved the Florida primary back to late January. The Democratic National Committee warned that the election could not be used to select delegates to the national convention. This substantially suppressed turnout by Democrats. While Florida Democrats doubled their 2004 turnout, they were nearly equaled by Florida Republicans who faced the same restrictions on the early primary.
There were 5.8 million voters in the 2008 Democratic Primary and 2.7 million in 2004. That's 3.1 million "net new" Democratic primary voters for 2008. (Source CNN 2004, 2008)
These four critical swing states all went Republican in the last two presidential elections. But they show a pattern similar to the trend begun in the mid and southeastern Atlantic states. These primaries saw 5.8 million Democratic primary voters compared to 3.9 million Republicans. The Democrats more than doubled their 2004 primary voter total, 2.7 million voters, to 5.8 million in 2008. That's a 3.1 million increase in Democratic primary voters. These figures are in line with the mid and southeastern Atlantic states.
The critical factor is that these "net new" Democratic primary voters were not turned away from the polls by the traditional election fraud strategies. They're on record as voting in the most recent election, and they're highly likely to turnout for the general election, without any real impediments to vote. It's axiomatic that primary voters do just that.
