Here's a brief survey of where we are now in the Election 2008 cycle, which might help progressives figure out where we want to go and maybe even what the post-CheneyBush future might look like. Four quick observations:
1. THE VOTING
Let's assume, at least for the sake of argument, that the November election proceeds without attempts at intervention or "postponement" by CheneyBush, and that it is a reasonably honest one, with a minimum of electoral fraud involved. (Certainly, what we've witnessed in the primaries should make us all nervous: a hundred thousand votes not counted in Los Angeles, unsecured ballot boxes left overnight in poll workers' homes in New Mexico, votes not being recorded or going to other candidates on touchscreen voting machines in New Hampshire, etc. etc.)
The election campaign from now until November no doubt will be a mighty dirty one, initiated by Rove and his GOP and swiftboating minions. It will include the usual ploy of illegally suppressing the Democratic vote by knocking off the election rolls as many as hundreds of thousands of legitimately registered citizens. Democratic registration drives will be harrassed by White House-friendly U.S. attorneys charging Dems with "fraud" right before the election. And much more such attempts to manipulate the vote. It's possible that American public might be even more turned off by such obvious tactics, which would harm the Republican candidate.
And, if CheneyBush launch a pre-election air attack on Iran's military and nuclear-lab facilities, which they are itching to do, this also might backfire on the GOP candidate. My own guess is that such an attack, if the reluctant Pentagon brass is not able to prevent it, would come either very soon or between November and when the new president takes over in late-January. (Loosing the dogs of war after the election would avoid a potential negative backlash by voters alarmed that Republicans would be taking the U.S. into yet another interminable Middle East war.)
2. GOP ALREADY LOOKING TO 2012?
Unless something extraordinary happens between now and November, it would seem that John McCain will be the GOP nominee. The only things up in the air are: who McCain will nominate as his running mate (Huckabee?), and how many HardRight conservatives will sit on their hands or vote for a third-party candidate rather than vote for McCain. Even with Romney and Bush#41 giving their imprimature, McCain still isn't trusted as a true conservative by the extremist wing of the party.)
One can reasonably presume that a goodly number of Republican leaders, seeing the handwriting on the wall that the Democrats are a shoo-in in November, privately realize that 2008 is a lost cause and have started working for 2112. In a sense, it's a re-run of the 1964 race: The GOP knew that it was going to lose big by nominating Goldwater, but the rightwing used that huge defeat as the starting point and fuel for building the new engine of HardRight conservatism. Rightwing billionaires like Scaife, Coors, Otis, the Koch Brothers, et. al, founded think tanks, published books, bought up cable networks and radio talk shows, employed scores of rightwing pundits, trained college students in conservative Republican activism, etc. etc. But that 16-year infrastructure-building effort paid off big in 1980 when Ronald Reagan took office.
3. CLINTON V. OBAMA
There is no certainty at this point in the Democratic camp. Clinton seems to have had no Plan B beyond the February 5 SuperDuper primaries, which she and her advisers mistakenly assumed would result in her "inevitable" nomination. The result was a number of tactical errors, including not competing in a number of smaller-states' primaries and caucuses, which did her campaign great damage. Now she's playing catch-up big time -- dumping her campaign manager in the process -- and banking that the big-state delegates in Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania will take her over the top.
If that happens, she may pull even with Obama and count on the superdelegates, mainly more status quo-oriented office-holders, to push her into the nomination.
But Obama's momentum is so huge now -- as I write this, he's won eight in a row -- that he may be unstoppable.
The danger for the Democrats is that Clinton and Obama, desperate for victory, will savage each other in such ways as to provide an enormous amount of political ammunition for McCain and the Republicans in both the presidential and congressional contests.
4. DEALING WITH THE CHENEYBUSH MESS
Supposing that either Clinton or Obama beats McCain handily in November, what might a Democratic administration look like and how much of the CheneyBush disaster could be reversed?
Bernard Weiner, Ph.D. in government & international relations, has taught at universities in California and Washington, worked for two decades as a writer-editor at the San Francisco Chronicle, and currently serves as co-editor of The Crisis Papers (www.crisispapers.org).
"Better to go into 2009 without wearing our usual rose-colored glasses."
This is the best suggestion I've read since these primaries began, although it might be too late. The rose-colored glasses are already fixed in place, I think.
Obama is not gonna lead Americans directly to the Promised Land. Nor is Clinton. What lies ahead for Americans is 40 years in the desert, so pick your Moses with that in mind. Pick one who knows that s/he "may not get there with you."
Pick one who's gonna start by restoring that old relic that's been gathering dust for lo these many decades -- namely, your constitution. There's nothing in that document that identifies Americans as the Chosen People; nor does it speak of global hegemony as America's Manifest Destiny. So question those candidates on exactly what they mean when they promise to "restore America to its rightful place in the world."
by
delia (0 articles, 1 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 112 comments)
on Wednesday, February 20, 2008 at 10:12:54 AM
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