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August 21, 2008 at 19:09:55

Headlined on 8/21/08:
"Prisoners of the Caucasus unite"

by Nicolai N. Petro     Page 1 of 1 page(s)

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First published in the International Herald Tribune on August 21, 2008.


Like the heroes in Leo Tolstoy's short story, Russia and America have become "Prisoners in the Caucasus," their options constrained by the irreconcilable positions of protagonists whose hostilities dates back centuries.

But while Russians have more than two centuries of historical, political, cultural and military experience to guide them in this crisis, the Bush administration is a novice to the region.

It shows. The administration's main argument for supporting Georgian sovereignty seems to be that Georgia has a rare combination of two virtues: 1) a staunchly pro-American strongman, Mikheil Saakashvili, whose lapses into martial law and seizure of opposition television stations are quickly forgiven; and 2) the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline, which connects the Caspian oilfields to the Black Sea.

Over the past four years, this combination has led to an investment of American prestige and money in Georgia that is wildly out of proportion to any possible benefit for the United States.

One reason is that neither the BTC, nor its much heralded natural-gas partner, Nabucco, can ever hope to make a serious dent in Europe's thirst for energy. That is why, well before the current crisis, major investors and governments in the region have been quietly switching their support from Nabucco to Russia's own pipeline expansion project - Southstream. These economic realities have not changed.

Another dangerous sign is the exaggerated rhetoric of American officials, which reveals a clear lack of understanding that the current crisis, far from being unique, is only the latest in a very long series of ethnic confrontations in the Caucasus.

Coupled with the ignorance of the Western mass media about the Caucasus and the political ambitions of Senator John McCain, for whom Russia-bashing is a convenient way to establish his foreign policy credentials, it is not surprising that the narrative that has emerged is "Russia invades Georgia."

The danger of this simplistic and misleading narrative is that it prevents Americans from recognizing the danger that accompanies an open-ended U.S. commitment to Georgia - namely the extent to which American foreign policy is held hostage to the ambitions of actors in the region, thus transforming America, along with Russia, into a prisoner of the Caucasus.

While U.S. and Russian leaders may not see it, they are in a similar bind. The only way out is for them to work together on a comprehensive settlement for the region. Failure to do so may or may not lead to direct confrontation with Russia, but will surely lead to America getting entangled in the passions of the Caucasus, like the Ottoman, Persian and Russian empires before it.

However, there is a way to stabilize the situation, promote self-determination and democracy, and restore the tattered credibility of the West in the region. It rests on an international peacekeeping mission with a very carefully crafted mandate.

Critical to the success of such a mission would be an explicit commitment by the West that would lead to the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia from Georgia if the parties fail to reach a mutually acceptable accord, as in the case of Kosovo. Under these conditions both South Ossetia and Abkhazia would probably accept Western peacekeepers.

With the backing of the South Ossetian and Abkahz leadership secured, Russia would have little choice but to support the deployment of international peacekeepers. Over time it is possible that Russia would come to regard them as preferable to being the sole military and economic guarantor of peace in the region, a role it has been forced to play for the past 15 years.

The one, unavoidable, downside to this proposal is that it would be termed a betrayal by Saakashvili, whose popularity rests on his pledge to establish sovereignty over all of Georgia. He is supported in this ambition by many in the Georgian political elite who remain wedded to the idea of an imperial Georgia, from the Black Sea to the Caspian.

But giving up South Ossetia and Abkhazia, which have both demonstrated an unbending desire for independence from Georgia and have sacrificed thousands of lives to this since 1991, may be the only way to safeguard the territorial integrity of the rest of Georgia.

It is simply inconceivable that after the latest Georgian blitzkrieg, either of these two regions will allow Georgia to rule over them, though some form of confederation may still be remotely possible. And Georgia remains a cauldron of diverse nationalities, with the separatists in Abkhazia and Southern Ossetia being only the most obvious. Svanetia, Javakhetia and Mingrelia also have restless local and political elites. Sometimes, as in the case of Adjaria, they can be bought off, but in the Caucasus such arrangements are highly personal, not institutional.

Ultimately, the only way to ensure Georgia's political stability and integrity is for the U.S., Russia and the European Union to coordinate their actions, as they did in arranging the peaceful departure from office of former president Eduard Shevardnadze.

The imposition of "Kosovo terms" on all the parties in the conflict would put the Georgian political elite before a clear deadline to come up with terms that are acceptable to other ethnic constituencies, or to give up what Shevardnadze once referred to as their "mini-empire."

Since international peacekeepers will only be accepted by the Abkhaz and South Ossetians if approved by Russia, whom they see as their only true friend in the international community, such coordination would have the added benefit of establishing a dialogue on practical areas where the United States, Russia and the EU share a common objective.

Coming to terms with a non-imperial identity will be a painful process for Georgia. But, as for Russia and Serbia, it will ultimately lead to a more stable domestic political consensus.

 

Nicolai N. Petro is professor of political science at the University of Rhode Island. He has served as special assistant for policy in the U.S. State Department, and as civic affairs advisor to the mayor of the Russian city of Novgorod the Great. His books include: The Rebirth of Russian Democracy (Harvard,1995), Russian Foreign Policy (Longman, 1997), and Crafting Democracy (Cornell, 2004).

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3 comments

Greg Moses is author of Revolution of Conscience: Martin Luther King, Jr. and the Philosophy of Nonviolence.
Greg MosesGreg Moses is author of Revolution of Conscience: Martin Luther King, Jr. and the Philosophy of Nonviolence.

thank you

I like the way that the process begins by presenting options to the leadership of S. Ossetia and Abkhazia.  However, I would wonder why the leadership  of the "breakaway states" would opt for European-based peacekeepers if they do feel like Russia is a more reliable protector.

Secondly, if the S. Ossetia and Abkhazia leadership is "de facto" Russian in the first place, any question posed to the leadership of the states is a question that would be answered by way of a Russian circuit. 

So if it is possible that Russia would eventually appreciate "Western" peacekeepers, what makes it likely that they would want this to happen soon?  Or: which "peacekeepers" from the "West" would the Russians trust to keep the peace fairly?

Thanks again.  Hope they get you on t.v.

by Greg Moses (34 articles, 0 quicklinks, 6 diaries, 10 comments) on Thursday, August 21, 2008 at 11:51:42 PM
 


Nicolai N. Petro is professor of political science at the University of Rhode Island. He has served as special assistant for policy in the U.S. State Department, and as civic affairs advisor to the mayor of the Russian city of Novgorod the Great. His books include: The Rebirth of Russian Democracy (Harvard,1995), Russian Foreign Policy (Longman, 1997), and Crafting Democracy (Cornell, 2004).Click on the Feedburner icon to subscribe by RSS or email: ...

to see more of bio, click on member name

Nicolai N. PetroNicolai N. Petro is professor of political science at the University of Rhode Island. He has served as special assistant for policy in the U.S. State Department, and as civic affairs advisor to the mayor of the Russian city of Novgorod the Great. His books include: The Rebirth of Russian Democracy (Harvard,1995), Russian Foreign Policy (Longman, 1997), and Crafting Democracy (Cornell, 2004).Click on the Feedburner icon to subscribe by RSS or email: ...

to see more of bio, click on member name

Reply to Greg Moses

While their immediate goal physical self-preservation, as recent events have shown, is best guaranteed by Russian forces on the ground, it would be to their long term advantage to obtain international recognition.

As international pressure against Russia mounts, it is only natural for the leaders and people of Southern Ossetia and Abkhazia to wonder just how far Russia will go on their behalf. Will they really fight for the freedom of those tiny enclaves “to the last Russian?”  I doubt it.  

Now is an opportune moment to push for international recognition because, for this first time, Abkhaz and Ossetians are no longer “invisible people” for the West.

To your second point, the leadership and populace of these regions is strongly pro-Russian (not “de facto Russian) because Russia is the only country in the world willing to recognize their right to existence. Western politicians must come to understand the following truth:  the price that must be paid for weakening Russian influence, as well as for guaranteeing Georgian sovereignty, is international recognition of these two regions.

This will not happen soon.

Russia has little incentive to listen to the West until it becomes constructive, or at least logical.  How can one discuss realistic solutions to the region’s problems when, on the one hand Russia is told to withdraw its troops immediately, yet at the same time held responsible for stopping lawlessness and looting. Such mutually exclusive demands are designed to paint Russia into a corner.

The timing of the introduction of international peacekeepers should be contingent on their approval by the political leaderships of Abkhazia and Southern Ossetia.  Approaching them as independent actors, and not “through Moscow,” would be a vital first step to establishing a small modicum of trust and respect in the international institutions that betrayed them.

by Nicolai N. Petro (16 articles, 6 quicklinks, 4 diaries, 2 comments) on Friday, August 22, 2008 at 9:11:24 AM
 


A writer is a rogue goose. All other gees fly in a flock formation; every goose knows his place and time for honking. The rogue goose is undisciplined. He leaves the formation indiscriminately to have a look at it from aside. He roams back and forth, takes a peep at the leader, honks a little bit from behind, distracts everyone and writes on what he sees. Time passes and as he wants to return back to his place he discovers someone else there. Thus he either has to wait until they land for rest...

to see more of bio, click on member name

Mark SashineA writer is a rogue goose. All other gees fly in a flock formation; every goose knows his place and time for honking. The rogue goose is undisciplined. He leaves the formation indiscriminately to have a look at it from aside. He roams back and forth, takes a peep at the leader, honks a little bit from behind, distracts everyone and writes on what he sees. Time passes and as he wants to return back to his place he discovers someone else there. Thus he either has to wait until they land for rest...

to see more of bio, click on member name

This article

demonstrates a really unfortunate tendency of some  intellectuals to engage in the ' art' of political intrigues. Mr Petro views  the politics as some kind old Venetian thing.  In his suggestions he effectively offers the big guys to 'come together and steal' the  independence of all three little players in the region under umbrella of ' peacekeeping'. This is an  ideal neoconism, the one in its  worst.

In reality  the  things are simple: Ossetias and Abhasia are to go  back to Russia and Georgia  can stay independent if its people want that. Hopefully they  will get rid of Saakashvili on their own. Neither EU, nor NATO nor USA have any  business there and have to play adjourn. Only then people there will have peace and will be able to restore their economy.  As for Leo Tolstoy he would  challenge Mr. Petro  to a duel  if he had found out what his great story was used for.

End of the story. Mr. Petro can eat his checkers.

by Mark Sashine (53 articles, 19 quicklinks, 249 diaries, 3570 comments) on Friday, August 22, 2008 at 8:28:50 AM
 

 

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