| Gephart Closing In on Dean. And The Two are Far ahead of the Pack
Rob Kall
OpEdNews.Com
Using the same "technology that enabled OpEdNews.com to
predict within less than one percent, what Howard Dean would Win the
MoveOn.org Primary, we see a close race between Dean and Gephart, with the
other 7 candidates far behind.
When Moveon.org ran it's on-line internet democratic presidential
primary, OpEdNews.com predicted that Dean would
win, and that he would not get the 50% he'd need to earn the funding
support of moveon.org. The prediction technology OpEdNews.com developed to
make this prediction actually predicted
the percentage Dean won by within less than one percentage point.
Today, that same technology has shown that the primary appears to be
becoming a two man race between Howard Dean and Dick Gephardt, who moved
from sixth to second place.
More important, Dean, who was running far ahead of the crowd of eight
other contenders, is getting serious competition from Gephart, whose
website, today, reached more people on the internet per million than Dean.
Over all, Dean is still far in the lead, but Gephart's strong recent
showing may indicate that his growing support among unions may be paying
off on the internet too. Both Dean and Gephardt are far ahead of the next
candidate, Kerry, who has one fifth the internet reach of the top
two. Dennis Kucinich, generally considered by many pundits as a
candidate with no serious chance of winning has double the reach
of three candidates who ARE considered to be serious contenders.
Dean still has a solid long term lead over Gephardt, and daily spikes
in ratings are not uncommon. But the signs do look strong that this race
is settling into a race between Dean and Gephardt, with Kerry and Kucinich
still in the same stretch and the other five falling further behind. The
one exception is late starter Bob Graham, who, while behind, is the only
one of the five laggers who has actually gained ground since the
MoveOn.org Primary.
The technology used to make these analyses are based on the web
activity of hundreds of thousands of web users, unlike most political
polls which are based on hundreds of people. Still, the technology is new
and minimally tested, and only represents the interests of people who are
regular web surfers.
AVERAGE REACH PER MILLION
| Candidate
daily |
weekly |
3 month |
| Howard
Dean 275 |
325 |
158 |
| Dick
Gephardt 290 |
190 |
47 |
| John
Kerry 60 |
62 |
38 |
| Dennis
Kucinich 35 |
37.5 |
31 |
| JoeLieberman
15 |
21.5 |
11.5 |
| Jonathan Edwards15 |
20.5 |
15.5 |
| Bob
Graham 15 |
18 |
8.9 |
| Carol Mosely
Brain 15 |
11.5 |
4.45 |
| Al Sharpton
N/A |
2.5 |
3.15 |
| Wesley
Clark ? |
|
|
| Hillary
Clinton ? |
|
|
Rob
Kall rob@opednews.com
is publisher of progressive news and opinion website www.opednews.com
and organizer of cutting edge meetings that bring together world leaders,
such as the Winter Brain Meeting
and the StoryCon
Summit Meeting on the Art, Science and Application of Story This
article is copyright by Rob Kall, but permission is granted for reprint in
print, email, blog, or web media so long as this credit is attached
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