So, Trayvon and Zimmerman:
I can't be reasonably sure that Zimmerman wouldn't have thought Trayvon was up to no good and followed him if he was white.
I can't be reasonably sure the jury would have found Zimmerman innocent if Trayvon had been white.
What I CAN be reasonably sure about, however, is that if Trayvon Martin had been white, the national dialogue would have been vastly different.
I CAN be reasonably sure that Zimmerman would not have walked free that night, and would have been in jail, instead.
I CAN be reasonably sure that Zimmerman would have been charged with something within 4 days, rather than waiting 40-something while outrage grew enough to do something.
I CAN be reasonably sure that the media personalities who have been defending Zimmerman would have been excoriating him, instead.
I CAN be reasonably sure that the comment train clowns would be calling him racist things and wondering where his green card went, or how he got a gun in the first place.
I CAN be reasonably sure that the people who had been excoriating Trayvon for his past mistakes and bad social media choices would be painting him to be the victim.
I CAN be reasonably sure that the comment train clowns would not be calling him a "negro" who got what was coming to him.
I CAN be reasonably sure that there would be a backlash against stand your ground laws, right now, and that it would be coming from both sides of the aisle.
I CAN be reasonably sure that the same personalities who cried "halleluiah" at the innocent verdict would now be asking if our justice system is broken, and wondering if Zimmerman's going to be tried to lying to the judge about the money from his defense website.
I can be reasonably sure about these things because that's the kind of world that we live in, and the country we inhabit.
Don't agree with me? Fine. But scrape away the specifics and really look at the underlying structure, and then tell me I'm not right.