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Senator James Inhofe (R-Oklahoma) has a declared a great victory in the wars against health care reform and the cap and trade portions of the energy reform bill: "I proudly declare 2009 as the 'Year of the Skeptic,' the year in which scientists who question the so-called global warming consensus are being heard."The reason for his self-proclaimed success: the delays in getting a bill through the U.S. Senate and the air of resignation that has settled over the Copenhagen Conference of Parties talks scheduled for December.
I don't want to be party-pooper, but I would offer two caveats that might temper the Senator's glee. To begin with, delay is not defeat. The Senate has barely begun serious consideration of the legislation. The recognition that the Copenhagen meeting will probably not yield binding agreements on emissions reductions is a setback, but hardly the end of the line.
Yes, the obstructionist voices of delay and denial were at full volume this summer and had an undeniable impact. But now, in the more reflective seasons of autumn and winter other voices are being heard.
Report after report is coming out warning of trouble to come. Recent research - backed by 31 top researchers from seven countries - found there had been a 29 per cent rise in global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels between 2000 and 2008.
On top of that, oceanographers are reporting that the ability of the sea to absorb carbon dioxide emissions has declined by 5 percent in the first years of the 21st century. This might indicate that the oceans are unable to keep pace with increasing greenhouse discharges produced by human activity.
Put it all together and we could be looking at a rise in global average temperatures of 6 degrees Centigrade by the end of the century. If that happens, our children and grandchildren won't be celebrating much of anything, Senator Imhofe.
From the bristlecone pines of the high Sierras to the jellyfish swarms of the South China Sea the signs are growing of nature responding to warming temperatures. So I would respectfully suggest to Sen. Inhofe that his celebration may be a tad premature. As Yogi Berra once said, "It ain't over till it's over."
This essay first appeared in PlaneRestart.org.
