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How Obama Wins
threecee CC
Michael Collins
Washington, DC
Here are my numbers on the electoral drama of under representation called the Electoral College. But first, for some politics.
Political factors weigh heavily.
Hillary Clinton is trying to extort the Vice President's slot from team Obama. "Take me, pay my debt, and let me stab you in the back -- the entire campaign." Such a deal. If Obama yields, he's just another political hack instead of Mr. Change. If he doesn't yield, Clinton will continue her zombie march to the convention and help her friend McCain in the process.
The second factor is racism. The Clinton's used it effectively and they had some restraints. It will be much worse with the Republicans. A backlash may form but you never know.
The third factor is black citizen turnout. If Obama can get back the spirit that he had in the mid Atlantic primaries, he will, quite simply, rock the house.
Here are sure wins for Obama totaling 209 electoral votes.
Obama wins the following states for a 209 Electoral College vote baseline.
CA, DC, HA, IL, MD, MA, MI, MN, NJ, NY, OR, VT WA, WI
Obama has some decent probabilities in these states if he works them. They yield 36 electoral votes.
CO, CT, MO, NH, NM,
That's 245 total for the Electoral College. But there's more.
Obama picks up 51 electoral votes in the Deep South from massive voter registration drives.
Obama needs massive voter registration efforts to cancel out "ethnic cleansing" of the voter registration files and all the other dirty tricks perpetrated by the anti-democracy forces (209th Congress and before) and those who remained willfully ignorant (i.e., the 110th Congress)
GA (27%), NC (28%), SC (33%), VA, (27%) totaling 51 electoral votes.
The percentages after each state abbreviation represent the combined black and Latino populations of each state. With turnout like it was in the primaries, Obama would need a 30% to 35% share of white votes to win those states. Democrats have a tough time winning general elections without black votes and blacks have had a tough time turning out to vote for a party that lets them down election after election.
This election may be different for turnout in the minority community. If the primaries are any indication, the South may rise again in a way that will confound just about everybody and put Obama over the top.
TOTAL: 296 Obama wins.
Forget Florida and Ohio, they'll be stolen. Forget Pennsylvania, thanks to the Clinton's race baiting. But include Missouri, which is a great state and has a great Democratic Party. The Democrats there just beat back a Photo ID bill with real conviction. Go for the baseline wins, high probability states, and the voter registration drive. Done well, a massive voter registration drive it will yield the 270 required electoral votes and much more if the drive becomes a national cause.
How can anyone oppose that? They'll figure out a way.
