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A lot of people think that global warming is a hoax. In some ways it would be nice to think they are right, but it would be prudent to have a Plan B just in case they aren't because as recent events are showing, taking collective action still takes a back seat to preserving national interests.
The latest round of climate talks in Bangkok ended with a bang, so to speak. A long-simmering diplomatic feud between the developed and developing nations broke into the open.
The original idea was to have a two track approach that would converge in Copenhagen. One track would preserve the Kyoto Protocol, which set binding targets for cuts in emissions by the industrialized nations as well as requiring those nations pick up the lion's share of whatever costs are incurred by the developing nations to deal with climate change.
The other track was a new agreement aimed at getting the United States into the fold. Instead, the U.S. and Europe are being accused of using the other track to weasel out of the mandates of Kyoto and replace them with non-binding targetsthat are less rigorous. And, by the way, the U.S. is also saying that Copenhagen may not be the end of the line after all for reaching an agreement.
In the end it comes down to this. Climate change is a global problem that can best be solved through collective action. But need for collective action bumps up against the legal and cultural traditions of the nation-state, which emphasizes preserving the rights on individual countries.
At the end of the day, I believe the Old and New Worlds will prevail against the Third World. What does that mean for you and me? It means a watered down approach to reducing greenhouse gas emissions, a feel-good face-saving photo-op that emphasizes doing the easy things and puts off any really hard measures for another day.
That approach works fine when time is an infinite commodity. But if what the scientists are telling us is true, time is not on our side. Which brings up back to having a Plan B. What's yours?
This essay first appeared in PlanetRestart.org.
