::::::::
Everyone in Pakistani society has been discussing the issue as to who will be the next president. No one has the time to find solution to the problems being faced by the poor class. This situation has created great depression in the poor class an now they have been resorting to suicide attacks.Just read the article of Ayesha Siddiqa, an analyst of Islamabad in which she discussed the issue of ruling class as she may also belong to the same class. She said that the question bothering everyone in Pakistan today is whether General Pervez Musharraf will strike a deal with Benazir Bhutto. Some experts say the deal has been stitched; others are of the view that it is being negotiated.
Opinion is also divided between those who think of Bhutto as a traitor to democratic principles and those who view her decision as based on a pragmatic approach that requires her to negotiate with Musharraf to find her way back into power.
Be that as it may, it is important to consider the current status of the deal. Bhutto thinks that she had got a commitment with help from the UK and the US, and that Musharraf is now reneging on it. Could it be that the GHQ have outsmarted her in the ruthless game of politics.
Let's consider the basis of the argument.
There are costs and benefits of making political deals or negotiating towards a prospective deal. The possible benefit for Musharraf is that he would get support from a large party like Bhutto's Pakistan People's Partly to get re-elected for the next five years. With support from the PPP, the Mutahidda Qaumi Movement (MQM) and elements from the ruling party, Musharraf can easily muster sufficient number of votes. This support in parliament will help him modify the constitution to ensure that he is re-elected in uniform and Bhutto gains a third term as prime minister. The problem here is that Bhutto will not give in on the uniform issue. I will return to this issue later.
The cost of a deal for Musharraf is minimal. At best, he might face embarrassment for negotiating with politicians he has rubbished in the past. But then Musharraf is not a politician and he is only accountable to his organisation. The military would benefit from his enhanced power but success in the presidential elections is not the criterion for gaining support of the army's officer cadre. Why should the army reject Musharraf, especially when the US continues to support him? The West views Musharraf as the only credible person to deliver on certain strategic interests, such as the battle against terrorism and ensuring peace with India.
Even Musharraf is confident of international support; his re-election as president will simply underscore his existing power. The surety of his claims, that he will get re-elected and that the country needs him, makes one wonder about the measures that will be employed to help him succeed.
Let's consider the comparative benefits and costs of a deal for Bhutto. The benefit is that she could become prime minister for a third time, returning her party to power. Considering that nothing works better than power, she hopes to attract people to the PPP. However, the cost of the deal outweighs the benefits. News of a prospective deal seems to have shaken the PPP from within. Genuine workers and PPP supporters are undergoing anxiety at the thought of their leader negotiating on their behalf with a military dictator.
In a recent interview, Bhutto admitted that she had taken a great risk by meeting Musharraf in Abu Dhabi, UAE. She had risked her popularity. Today, she faces more criticism than ever before. This raises the question: Why would Musharraf honour any commitment to Bhutto, as she seems to be losing her popularity?
This brings me to my next argument: that Bhutto might have to concede that the general and his military backers have proved smarter than her. The army's intelligence agencies are good at psychological operations (psy-ops), and they have employed that against Bhutto, her party, and the people of Pakistan.
Recall the manner in which the story of the deal has played out. Soon after the meeting in Abu Dhabi, stories floated in the Pakistani press talked about Bhutto's willingness to accept Musharraf in uniform, which is far from the truth. Although she is keen to regain power, she certainly understands that compromising on the uniform issue will not ensure support from the people or her party. Since then, criticism against her has increased.
Of course, she must share the blame for not being able to predict how her party would react to a prospective deal with an unpopular general. Her biggest flaw is that during negotiations, she seemed unwilling to dictate tougher terms to the general. In addition, her case in the eyes of the people is further weakened with statements from American dignitaries like Richard Boucher saying that the US would like to see a moderate and liberal political setup in Pakistan. Her greatest mistake is to negotiate power through Washington which might be interested in helping her get back to power, but is even keener at this stage to keep Musharraf in Islamabad.
The net result is massive political damage to the PPP, which was already damaged by the regime through the creation of the PPP-Parliamentarian faction. It almost seems that there was an agenda to further cripple the PPP in order to improve the general's overall capacity to negotiate some settlement with the party's leadership. There are a lot of people who believe that the PPP is the single most popular party in the country. However, this might be difficult to prove in the elections even if these were free and fair, especially if its vote-bank is too disheartened to come out and vote for a party that has sold out to a dictator.
The other issue is that the military has not forgiven the PPP for what they consider to be the sins of former Prime Minister and Bhutto's father, Zulfikar Ali Bhutto; therefore, the party is not their natural choice. The PPP is a reminder of populist politics in the country, and that makes the military extremely uncomfortable. Their preference would be the more conservative parties that are easier to manipulate and have an ideological affinity with a certain kind of nationalist agenda. Already there are other rumours regarding efforts being made to reunite the different factions of the Pakistan Muslim League.
It seems that Bhutto did not manage to read the mood of policy-makers abroad, whose first concern is the war on terror. The leadership of the Western world can currently not think of Pakistan without Musharraf. There is a possibility that the general's re-election in uniform is a price they might be willing to pay.
Recently, it was suggested that if Musharraf holds elections in uniform, the decision will be challenged in the courts and people will be out on the streets. The first issue is being taken care of by leaking stories about a secret meeting between the chief justice and General Hamid Javed. The idea is to cast doubt over the credibility of the chief justice. As for popular agitation with parties generally busy negotiating deals, it will be difficult to start another strong movement.
US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice might be too busy to make a phone call the next time Musharraf wants to send a 'strong message' to protestors. What is even sadder is the fact that most parties seem unwilling to start a serious discussion on the power of the military. Random comments will not get us anywhere.
The End
