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This hurts me to say it, it genuinely hurts me, but I don’t think Obama will win for the following reasons:
1) It seems that no presidential or vice presidential candidate with a foreign sounding, non redneck-mainstream name ever seems to win. Witness Dukakis, Lieberman, Barry Goldwater (sounded Jewish), there may be others. American’s don’t like a name that doesn’t sound white, mainstreet and that has more than two syllables. Won’t vote for ‘em.
2) Obama is too intelligent and intellectual. The same mistake George McGovern, Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, John Kerry made was that they didn’t realize that the American public wants “all stupid all the time”; they want black and white contrasts presented to them; they want militaristic, sloganeering, simple minded, instant solutions to all national problems and the Democrats keep forgetting that the public dislikes nuance and detailed policy presentations that require a bit of rationality. Public hates that.. It makes their brains hurt and they even suspect a person who is too ‘pointy headed’as if they aren’t somehow manly enough. The public hates a candidate who advocates any forethought, any planning, any deferred gratification or any telling of inconvenient truth. Witness the reelection of George W. Bush even after being caught in more than one scandal between 2000 and 2004, even after starting a bogus war and bankrupting the country. The public knew Bush was a lying crook but didn’t care. He offered them those comfortable slogans and that smearing that the public loves so much even as it complains about negative campaigning. Bush played Rovian slanderous, patriot-baiting politics.and the American public mistook it for ‘decisiveness’.
3) Obama hasn’t been on the offensive in this campaign. As Michael Moore says, whoever isn’t attacking first and doing the defining is losing. Obama ought to have been constant and relentless on McCain as McBush. Instead he just issues a few vague attacks but then lets McCain’s low blows keep landing with a daily drumbeat in the co-conspiratorial mainstream press which has already anointed McCain and has decided Obama isn’t up to the job. And this, in spite of the fact that McCain is a liar, has a terrible record of duplicity, dirty dealing, bad character, bad temper, falsified hero status, and so forth. The false public image of himself put out there has stuck, to his benefit in the public mind, in spite of his obviously being a slanderer, and committing multiple gaffes that ought to call into question his fitness and expert status.
4) The press passes over McCain’s constant outbreaks of dishonesty and instead credits him with being an experienced, steady, maverick, a cranky but kindly old grandfather figure who will keep our country safe from those big bad Russians and all the terrorists over whom McCain promises easy victory. Yes, the press kingmakers have decided on McCain, probably aided by hefty influence from Exxon Mobile and other right-leaning corpies with fat wallets. The press is a big factor in this. They tell the public what to think and the public thinks exactly what they’re told to think.
5) If Obama doesn’t pick Hillary to be his running mate, at the very least, letting her and Bill run interference for him, then he’ll lose. Plain and simple. I think the Democrats don't have much of a chance unless Obama steps down, actually, and lets Hillary's name be put into nomination and win. He should withdraw from the race for the good of the country so McCain doesn't get in.
6) From the press reports lately, it sounds like he hasn’t picked Hillary. Bill Clinton has been praising McCain on his stance on global warming, which tells me that Hillary wasn't picked for Veep. I'm afraid even good ole' Joe Biden won’t get the job done, much less unknowns like Kaine or Bayh.
7) Even if Obama were to pull a rabbit out of the hat and nominates Wesley Clarke so he can run on national security, Obama is going to have to completely change his current campaign tactics of letting McCain call the shots or he’ll lose.
In conclusion, I'm afraid, as much as I want him to win, that Barack Obama may just lose and it pains me beyond compare, because I see exactly what John McCain is, and I will say with confidence that if and when McCain gets in, it will certainly be the end of this country because McCain is crazy, dishonest, unprincipled, low down and dirty. He will make a much worse president even than George W. Bush and in the deal may just start a nuclear war when the USA runs out of credit, out of military options and out of time. McCain is so enamored of war and has such a hot temper, I do believe he’d press the button and wipe us all out in the name of vengeance and national security. So the long and short of it is Obama is too smart, too foreign sounding, too rational, not mean, down and dirty enough and is too black to become president. The rednecks, a lot of them, will vote on the basis of something as stupid as race or foreign sounding name. America is too moronic to elect Barack Obama. I’m really sorry to have to say all this but it is how I see it.
