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American President Barack Obama and China's President Hu Jintao have found common ground. In a joint appearance at the UN, both men pledged to do less than what scientists around the world have been saying is the bare bones minimum necessary to forestall serious consequences from climate change. In the world of international climate negotiations, this ranks as major headway.
Given what could still remains to be done at Copenhagen, this has to be seen as progress of a sort. The leader of the biggest developed nation and the leader of the biggest developing nation have both committed their countries to take action on climate change.That really is news. Whether it is good enough news remains to be seen. The goals are less than what everyone sees as being needed, the commitments are either based on promises of legislation to come or are heavily caveated with loopholes, and as is always the case, the devil is in the details and we don't even have the big picture yet.
Certainly, opponents of climate change legislation in the U.S. will be parsing President Hu's words very carefully, and they won't have to look too hard to find problems. In promising to cut carbon dioxide emissions by a "notable margin" (whatever that means) by 2020 compared with 2005 levels, Hu puts China in synch with the Obama administration. I think we can consider a 2005 benchmark to be a done deal. He also promised more intensive forestation efforts, an increase in the use of nuclear or nonfossil fuels, and a greener economy.
What he didn't say is whether China would make emission reductions mandatory. President Hu further hedged his bets by linking emission reductions with China's GDP, so-called carbon intensity cuts. In that world, up is often down and down is often up. In other words, perfect for politicians.
Still, at least he is putting something on the table. President Obama gave us his usual fine speech but everyone knows that any promises he make must be kept by the House and the Senate, and God only knows what will happen there, or when it will happen.
If you are a believer in climate change then you know that the one thing we don't have a lot of is time. Given the reticence of the two major governments involved in climate change to come down really hard on reducing CO2 emissions, I think it is fair to say that the outcome is bleak.
We can fool ourselves into thinking that half measures will get the job done, but as far as I know you still can't fool Mother Nature.
This essay first appeared on Planet Restart.
