While a majority of Americans, and for that matter, people around the world celebrate Obama’s decisive victory, I am inclined to think his will be a one term presidency.
Why??? For all of Obama’s political savvy, intellect and drive, I think the global macro-economic events will translate into a “losing hand”. Card players are well aware of games where “trump” cards are required to win the hand. If when the cards are passed out you don’t receive any trump cards, it is near impossible for you to win the hand. You just lose and wait for the next hand.
Obama’s losing hand will be the de-leveraging of the banks, hedge funds and other companies that is currently undermining the US and the global economy. This de-leveraging is tied to the on-going mortgage fiasco where over-priced home loans were made to people who couldn’t afford them and the banksters quickly pocketed their ill-gotten gain. (It took the banksters 20+ years to eliminate most the anti-usury laws that were passed to protect .) Most pundits expect this de-leveraging to go on for a few more years, well into Obama’s Presidency.
Through this de-leveraging process, people will be pushed out of their homes, watch their standard of living decline sharply and their retirements evaporate. Deserving or not, over the next four years, Obama will be the President, and he will get the blame.
One hope: Obama might be able to use his verbal skills using something like Roosevelt’s fire side chats to keep the American people convinced that their dire financial predicament came from Bush and Republicans... Only time will tell.