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With a Democratic primary underway in Louisiana today, caucuses in Washington and Nebraska today, and another caucus in Maine tomorrow, Barack Obama's prospects for victory in primaries and caucuses through next Tuesday are looking very good indeed. Strangely, there appear to be no recent poll numbers at all for Louisiana, Nebraska, Washington, Maine, or DC (I'd really like to know why), but many observers have given Obama the edge in all five owing both to the large number of African American Democrats in Louisiana and the DC area and to the fact that Obama seems to do especially well in caucuses. New poll numbers are available for Virginia and Maryland, which vote along with neighboring DC next Tuesday; and these numbers show a commanding lead for Obama. While Maryland poll numbers released Feb. 8 show Obama leading Hillary Clinton by 19 percentage points (Obama 52%, Clinton 33%), those for Virginia show Obama leading by as many as 20 points (Obama 59%, Clinton 39%). Democrats Abroad also holds a primary Tuesday for American expatriates around the world, with 11 delegates at stake and a voting demographic that again appears to favor Obama. Unfortunately for Obama, a closed caucus in Maine and closed primaries in Louisiana, Maryland, and DC will prevent him gaining from crossover independent and Republican votes, benefitting Clinton. On the other hand, closed primaries or caucuses in Colorado, Connecticut, Kansas, Delaware, and Alaska did not prevent Obama winning by significant margins in all those states. The current delegate count at Real Clear Politics shows Clinton currently at 1076 and Obama at 1015, a difference of only 61 delegates (another thing I'd really like to know is why each news organization seems to have a different delegate count). At stake in DC, Democrats Abroad, and the six states voting between today and next Tuesday are 477 delegates, a significant majority of which could boost Obama to frontrunner status and beyond.
Mark C. Eades
http://www.mceades.com
