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If you asked the extreme believers and the extreme disbelievers if Copenhagen still matters you would get pretty much the same answer: Not really. That leaves it up to the middle-grounders to muddle through. So the real question becomes: "Can the center hold?"
World leaders will come together in Copenhagen on Dec 7 - 18 to take one last collective stab at cutting a deal to slow down the rate at which carbon emissions are pumped into the atmosphere. Two key issues - emissions reduction levels and funding for developing nations - remain the subject of much debate and negotiation.
Leading figures such as NASA scientist James Hansen and former vice-president Al Gore are deeply skeptical about the current emission reduction goals. Dr. Hansen goes so far as to say that he would prefer no action to accepting grossly inadequate goals.
Those whose belief that global warming is a hoax was confirmed by the release of e-mails from the Climate Research Unit are equally skeptical of the outcome from Copenhagen for totally different reasons of course.
So what will happen? I think Dr. Alex Bowen, co-author of a study conducted at the Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy is right to warn that: "... weak or delayed action to reduce emissions in the near term would require much stronger cuts after 2020, which would be likely to increase significantly the economic costs of meeting a 2C target, and might make it impossible."
Of course, this is exactly what will end up happening. The near-term goals will be kept purposely easy, pushing the really hard work off to a future generation of politicians, who by then may be dealing with a drastically worsened set of conditions.
It doesn't get any easier when you start looking at the other big question, the demands by developing nations that they receive financial help to deal with the impact of climate change. Everyone agrees on two things. First, the developing world has every right to make that demand. Second, the money just ain't there to do everything that is needed. So guess what? There will be a load of compromising on the road to that horizon as well.
When Copenhagen wraps up, I think we'll see emissions and funding targets well below what the scientists and economists agree is necessary and fair to deal with the problem. The diplomats and negotiators will come up with the best package they can - nonbinding emission targets that put off the real work until 30 years from new and a fair amount of money now with promises of more to come.
The extreme deniers will still be unhappy. The extreme believers will still be unhappy. Those of us in the middle should just be plain worried.
This essay first appeared in PlanetRestart.org
