::::::::
The unrest in Tunisia is subsiding. Next week, the state of emergency imposed last month by ousted President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali will be lifted. The old guard is making way for the new.
As the effects of the Jasmine Revolution ripple through a population of over 10 million -- many of them jubilant, middle-class members of the so-called "Bourguiba generation" (named after Habib Bourguiba, the nation's socially progressive post-independence president) -- there is much reason to rejoice. Ben Ali's repressive, 23-year rule is finally over.
Although the Fitch ratings agency last week reduced its 2011 economic growth forecast for Tunisia from 5 percent to 2 percent and forecast foreign direct investment (FDI) might fall by a third this year, it will more than likely rebound strongly. Unlike its oil-dependent neighbors Algeria and Libya, it has a diversified economy (textiles, phosphates, iron, agriculture) well-suited for long-term investment.
In November, The Economist included the country in its list of the continent's "star performers," grouping it with South Africa, Egypt, Algeria, Botswana, Libya, Mauritius and Morocco, noting that collectively, these nations match the average GDP per head of the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India and China).
But in Africa's northernmost country, the political landscape isn't the only landscape experiencing sweeping change: The agricultural land is disappearing as desertification expands.
"Poor farming techniques, such as overgrazing, along with deforestation, soil erosion and a limited supply of natural sources of freshwater are all contributing to the problem of desertification," according to a University of California at Irvine report.
The report also notes that "agricultural land is decreasing, not only because of desertification, but also because of increased salinization and siltation due to the increased erosion of the soil...Also, like many countries, Tunisia has fallen far short of the ideal global total of ten percent of its land under some sort of environmental protection, protecting less than half a percent of its land."
It's not a good report card, especially considering that Tunisia was the first Arab nation to create a Ministry of Environment, which it did in 1991.
The Bourguiba generation has helped to fuel a great revolution. After the dust settles, it must also find solutions to Tunisia's mounting environmental problems. Otherwise, there may be no place for the delicate and fragrant jasmine flower -- or the revolution after which it is named -- to take root.
