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Polling in New Mexico's Second Congressional District shows exactly how vulnerable Republicans are this year. Democrat Harry Teague, a self-made millionaire from the oil-town of Hobbs, is only seven (or eight, depending on the pol l) points behind Republican Ed Tinsley.
One of the early issues has been Tinsley's actual place of residence. This has led to questions about his "regional" business holdings that reach from New Mexico to Texas, Oklahoma, and even Lousiana. This is only fueled by the pattern of campaign contributions coming overwhelmingly from out of state. This last point may gain salience as Texas homebuilder and Swift Boat promoter Bob Perry is trying to buy influence with the New Mexico GOP.
Such allegations may prove to find fertile ground in Southern New Mexico, if the polling is any indication. After all, Steve Pearce won in the last two elections by a margin of twenty points. In fact, NM-2 hasn't looked so competitive since 1980. In that year, Republicans gained control of the seat when Democrat Harold Runnels died of cancer, leaving the seat open. When Democrats split their vote between David King, the nephew of the governor, and Runnels widow (who ran a write-in campaign), Republican Joe Skeen was able to win with less than forty percent of the vote. Today's seven-to-eight point race looks to be the closest since Skeen's four-point victory twenty-eight years ago. Skeen's biggest issue, by the way, was the fact that King only moved into the district to run for office.
If Tinsley can overcome discomfort about his living arrangements, then he still faces tough questions about his hardcore conservative ideology that has led him to testify before Congress that his workers aren't smart enough to handle a living wage. In one of the poorest states in the country, a wage issue carries the potential for destroying a candidate. Tinsley's kneejerk scapegoating of the EPA has also led to questions of whether he would be able to advocate for federal financing of public water supplies in his district, where almost twenty percent of public water supplies exceed the EPA's limit for arsenic. In an area that is truly hurting for assistance, Ed Tinsley's message of cutbacks and boostrap Republicanism seems to ring hollow.
